Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Duquesne 7-9 (0.438) | Atlantic 10
-- AT --
UMass 6-11 (0.353) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through January 12, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.595 (148^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.408 (216^th)

0.502 (130^th)

Schedule Strength

0.490 (146^th)

-0.071 (209^th)

Record Quality

-0.178 (263^rd)

175.41 (174^th)

Avg. Season Rank

188.45 (188^th)

7.17 (1^st)

Momentum

1.57 (95^th)

-10.23 (282^nd)

Consistency

-8.14 (73^rd)

-1.56 (261^st)

Away/Home Court

-1.20 (308^th)

63.75 (345^th)

Pace

69.17 (64^th)

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		MASS
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	106.86	174	110.86	254
FTAR	26.53	208	32.90	331
FT%	61.26	356	--	--
FGAR	90.70	32	87.62	238
FG%	42.46	236	42.61	117
3P%	34.83	116	33.91	204
MR%	42.70	119	40.93	173
NP%	54.78	245	52.28	49
PPSt	11.95	198	11.67	142
SCC%	4.84	268	5.21	127
Prox	2.17	347	2.00	242

IN POSSESSION

	MASS		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	105.07	204	105.75	147
FTAR	33.25	24	32.72	330
FT%	68.86	283	--	--
FGAR	87.02	138	84.41	88
FG%	42.62	229	42.39	113
3P%	28.64	340	36.79	313
MR%	35.65	336	40.88	171
NP%	57.95	158	50.53	28
PPSt	13.67	120	12.20	176
SCC%	5.92	159	4.35	49
Prox	1.91	17	2.05	158

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Duquesne should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense is ranked #174 in Division I, while UMass comes in nationally at #254 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Duquesne offense leans strongly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the UMass defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the UMass defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 43.3% three-pointers (4.7% above the D1 average), 26.7% mid-range jumpers (0.2% above the D1 average), and 30.0% near-proximity twos (4.9% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 236th nationally in that category this year. The UMass defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 117th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the UMass defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 34.8% from three (1.2% above the D1 average), 42.4% from the mid-range (1.4% above the D1 average), 47.9% from near-proximity locations (9.4% below the D1 average), and 40.7% overall (3.1% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UMass may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 268th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). UMass, meanwhile, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 127th in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The UMass defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. On offense, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the UMass D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 120th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #208 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the UMass D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 331st nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

UMASS IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne defense appears to have a small advantage on the UMass offense at this end of the court. This site rates Duquesne to be 147th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while UMass is currently our #204 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The UMass offense is largely in favor of inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the UMass offense will be 28.8% three-pointers (9.8% below the D1 average), 33.9% mid-range jumpers (7.4% above the D1 average), and 37.3% near-proximity twos (2.4% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UMass rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #229 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #113 team nationally in that category). The Duquesne defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. We expect UMass to shoot 32.5% from behind the arc (1.1% below the D1 average), 36.9% from mid-range locations (4.2% below the D1 average), 53.3% from near-proximity (4.0% below the D1 average), and 41.7% overall (2.1% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. UMass is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're similarly a relatively average unit, rated 159th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. The opposition here, Duquesne, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 49th in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
	TURNOVERS: The UMass offense has a small advantage over the Duquesne defense in the turnover game on this end. When in possession, UMass rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
	FREE THROWS: You can expect plenty of chances at the free throw line for the UMass offense here. They're typically a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (24th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.9%, ranked #283 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 330th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. UMass (64th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Duquesne (345th) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Duquesne has performed worse away from home this year than they have at home. Luckily for them, they are facing UMass, who has played their most inefficient basketball this season when competing on their home floor.
	MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is first in the country in positive momentum, while UMass currently ranks 95th.
	CONSISTENCY: UMass appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (73rd in the nation in consistency), while Duquesne (282nd in consistency) has been much more erratic.

THE VERDICT:
Our analytics have these two squads separated by less than a single bucket. Every possession counts. Duquesne 71.23, UMass 69.78.