TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Dayton  10-3 (0.769)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.904 (36th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.573 (156th)
0.594 (36th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.494 (132nd)
0.315 (51st)
   Record Quality
  
-0.141 (242nd)
38.86 (34th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
183.11 (185th)
-0.82 (237th)
   Momentum
  
4.78 (11th)
-8.39 (129th)
   Consistency
  
-8.28 (114th)
2.63 (19th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.91 (142nd)
65.21 (295th)
  Pace
  
64.16 (340th)
IN POSSESSION
UD
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 120.51 22 104.79 131
FTAR 31.03 51 31.82 329
FT% 72.89 153 -- --
FGAR 86.47 161 84.81 113
FG% 49.60 17 41.85 78
3P% 36.20 99 36.96 293
MR% 43.74 112 41.02 164
NP% 65.91 18 48.03 10
PPSt 13.87 121 13.70 260
SCC% 6.41 114 3.86 31
Prox 1.99 106 2.03 195
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UD
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 100.86 84
FTAR 26.83 173 26.02 163
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 84.63 107
FG% 41.58 290 40.99 57
3P% 35.59 118 32.47 112
MR% 42.30 149 31.12 4
NP% 51.12 331 60.41 258
PPSt 12.77 170 9.30 27
SCC% 3.99 314 4.79 97
Prox 2.19 353 2.09 91
DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
On paper, Dayton stands to have a comfortable analytical advantage at this end of the court. The Dayton offense is ranked #22 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #131 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: The Dayton offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duquesne defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Dayton offense will be 34.5% three-pointers (4.5% below the D1 average), 28.8% mid-range jumpers (2.8% above the D1 average), and 36.7% near-proximity twos (1.8% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 17th in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Dayton to shoot 38.8% from three (4.6% above the D1 average), 42.3% from the mid-range (0.8% above the D1 average), 57.4% from near-proximity locations (0.3% below the D1 average), and 46.6% overall (2.3% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Dayton has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #114 in that department). Duquesne, meanwhile, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense likely won't force many turnovers against the Dayton offense. On offense, Dayton exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 27th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: You can expect plenty of chances at the free throw line for the Dayton offense here. They're usually a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (51st in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.9%, 153rd in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 329th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Dayton defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Duquesne offense in this particular matchup. Dayton is currently 84th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #207 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Dayton defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Dayton defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 46.3% three-pointers (7.2% above the D1 average), 31.1% mid-range jumpers (5.0% above the D1 average), and 22.7% near-proximity twos (12.3% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has certainly not converted field goals at a solid clip this season (rated our #290 team in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Dayton defense has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #57 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Dayton defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 34.5% from behind the arc (0.3% above the D1 average), 33.7% from mid-range locations (7.7% below the D1 average), 55.1% from near-proximity (2.7% below the D1 average), and 38.9% overall (5.4% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Dayton will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Dayton, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise done fairly acceptable work containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #97 in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Dayton defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Duquesne has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Dayton defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #121 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #107 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #173 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #358 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Dayton D has a defensive free throw attempt rate that lands somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack (ranked 163rd nationally in that category).

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 340th nationally in game pace, while Dayton currently ranks 295th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Dayton may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked 11th in the country in positive momentum.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of college basketball's more consistent teams, ranking 114th in the country in consistency. Dayton rates more in the middle.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne could potentially put a scare into Dayton, but the latter is the smart choice if all goes as planned. Dayton 72.01, Duquesne 61.29.