TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Davidson  10-3 (0.769)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.708 (107th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.573 (156th)
0.399 (281st)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.494 (132nd)
0.190 (99th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.141 (242nd)
114.68 (109th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
183.11 (185th)
1.98 (61st)
   Momentum
  
4.78 (11th)
-7.90 (89th)
   Consistency
  
-8.28 (114th)
-2.10 (280th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.91 (142nd)
66.04 (246th)
Pace
  
64.16 (340th)
IN POSSESSION
DAV
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 113.63 75 104.79 131
FTAR 28.11 123 31.82 329
FT% 73.64 132 -- --
FGAR 85.07 226 84.81 113
FG% 46.89 81 41.85 78
3P% 37.75 60 36.96 293
MR% 40.64 210 41.02 164
NP% 61.80 88 48.03 10
PPSt 8.49 339 13.70 260
SCC% 5.13 230 3.86 31
Prox 2.06 205 2.03 195
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
DAV
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 106.71 161
FTAR 26.83 173 24.97 136
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 87.23 224
FG% 41.58 290 44.54 178
3P% 35.59 118 35.71 246
MR% 42.30 149 32.73 13
NP% 51.12 331 63.45 325
PPSt 12.77 170 12.56 189
SCC% 3.99 314 5.27 139
Prox 2.19 353 2.03 197
DAVIDSON IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Davidson should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Davidson offense is ranked #75 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #131 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Davidson offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Davidson offense will be 36.7% three-pointers (2.3% below the D1 average), 31.2% mid-range jumpers (5.1% above the D1 average), and 32.2% near-proximity twos (2.8% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Davidson has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #81 team in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 78th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Davidson offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Davidson to shoot 40.4% from three (6.2% above the D1 average), 40.0% from the mid-range (1.5% below the D1 average), 51.5% from near-proximity locations (6.3% below the D1 average), and 43.8% overall (0.5% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Davidson lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're similarly unremarkable, coming in at #230 nationally in our ratings there. Meanwhile, Duquesne appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #31 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Davidson rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: Davidson will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #123 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (73.6%, ranked #132 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 329th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the Davidson defense, this Duquesne offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. Davidson is currently 161st in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #207 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Davidson defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Davidson defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 43.5% three-pointers (4.5% above the D1 average), 30.8% mid-range jumpers (4.7% above the D1 average), and 25.8% near-proximity twos (9.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Davidson defense, meanwhile, has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 178th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the Davidson defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 37.3% from behind the arc (3.1% above the D1 average), 35.1% from mid-range locations (6.4% below the D1 average), 59.9% from near-proximity (2.1% above the D1 average), and 42.4% overall (1.9% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Davidson would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. However, they're one of the weaker D1 teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #314 in the country in that category. Davidson, meanwhile, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly worse in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 139th in the country there).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense has a small advantage over the Davidson defense in the turnover game on this end. Offensively, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the conservative Davidson defense is not likely to come away with many turnovers against most D1 foes. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #339 ranking in that category.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, seventh from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the conservative Davidson defense is fairly average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 136th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Nobody will be in a huge rush to score in a contest such as this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 340th nationally in game pace, while Davidson currently ranks 246th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Davidson may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is 11th nationally in positive momentum, while Davidson presently ranks 61st.
CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. Davidson ranks 89th in the country in consistency, while Duquesne is presently 114th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
This one should go right down to the wire. The two clubs are separated by less than a single basket. Davidson 68.78, Duquesne 67.23.